Start Planning for the New Seasonality of Search

Seth Besmertnik
Conductor, Inc.

Article Highlights:

• Opportunities to expand the seasonality of search exist beyond the typical 12-month calendar schedule
• Google's Insights for Search can be used to highlight seasonal search trends for high volume keywords
• Changing the default view in Google AdWords is another method for exposing keyword seasonality

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that web searches for consumer electronics and toys spike in the holiday months. Any good marketer understands seasonal cycles like these occur every year. Back-to-school, upfronts, Christmas, end-of-school, spring break -- they are all dedicated entries on marketing plans and budgets. But even the best-laid plans can fall short if you're not considering search seasonality.

For example, a recent research project from Conductor found that search activity around keywords relating to cell phones didn't drop until after March last year -- three months after the holidays. The research also showed a search spike for cell phones in September that was nearly equal to December's, possibly due to the back-to-school rush. Opportunities to expand the seasonality of search exist beyond the typical 12-month calendar schedule and right now is the perfect time to plan for these kinds of holes throughout the rest of the year.

In order to uncover these search-based opportunities, marketers need to spend some time researching the trends in search activity over time -- and they need to know what to look for. With a little digging using nothing more than Excel and freely available tools, search marketers can gain significant insight into the seasonality of their target markets. For those marketers who can spare some summer Friday hours, here are a few tips on what to look for online to determine seasonality for top keywords.

1. Google AdWords default view does not account for seasonality.
Google's AdWords tool default view shows two metrics for a keyword: last month's search volume (Local Search Volume) and a 12 month search volume average (Global Monthly Search Volume). Since neither metric takes into account the seasonal dips and spikes occurring in search volume over time, you may get a skewed view by looking at a particularly high or low month. Using global monthly search volume, the peaks and valleys may be equally distributed over the 12 months.

2. Google Insights for search reveals high level trends.
Google's Insights for Search tool is one method for exposing seasonality. Because the tool only displays searches relative to the total number of searches over time and not absolute search volumes, it can highlight seasonal search trends for high volume keywords. At a recent Google event, the company highlighted a fun example by graphing the term "Filet O Fish," which is McDonald's fish sandwich. Searches for the term spike significantly around March during Lent -- when many searchers are looking for alternatives to meat.

3. A few clicks in AdWords exposes detailed seasonal behaviors.
Although the recently released AdWords interface (currently in beta) shows month-over-month search trends, the previous interface does not. For many users who maintain an allegiance to the previous interface, changing the default view in Google AdWords is another method for exposing keyword seasonality. Set the Match Type dropdown menu to "Exact:" to eliminate extraneous matches, and select Show All from the Choose Columns to Display' drop down menu.

The Search Volume Trends column graphs search volume over the last 12 months and, as its name implies, the Highest Volume Occurred In column shows the month with the highest search volume for that particular keyword. This short exercise can expose fresh insight into searcher habits for your targeted keywords. For example, our research shows searches for digital camera keywords peak in December, but searches for "digital camera lenses" peak in June.

4. There are ways to dig even deeper.
The above-mentioned tools will begin to expose seasonal trends around keywords. But in order to make informed search strategy decisions, you'll want to dive deeper by calculating absolute monthly search volume for every keyword and charting them month-over-month to expose seasonal trends. Look for solutions from search vendors that detail this type of activity and can help you prepare for upcoming quarters accordingly.

In order to completely understand the seasonality of search, marketers need to rethink the typical advertising calendar and look for opportunities beyond what's obvious to them. It might take some extra work, but there are resources to help discover the best times to scale SEO up or down depending on the season.